Firm-specific estimates of differential persistence and their incremental usefulness for forecasting and valuation Andrew C. Call, Max Hewitt, Terry Shevlin & Teri Lombardi Yohn
Tipo de material: ArtículoDescripción: Páginas 811 a la 833Tema(s): En: The accounting review 2016 V.91 No.3 (May)Incluye tablas y referencias bibliográficasResumen: Although the differential persistence of accruals and operating cash flows is a firm-specific phenomenon, research seeking to exploit the differential persistence of these earnings components typically employs cross-sectional forecasting models. We find that a model based on firm-specific estimates of the differential persistence of accruals and operating cash flows is incrementally useful for out-of-sample forecasting relative to state-of-the-art cross-sectional models. In doing so, we show that firm-specific estimates of differential persistence are particularly useful when forecasting earnings for more stable firms (e.g., more profitable, lower growth, and less levered firms). We also demonstrate that a trading strategy exploiting investors' fixation on earnings and based on firm-specific estimates of differential persistence earns statistically and economically significant excess returns that are incremental to those generated by trading strategies based on the size of accruals. These results suggest that firm-specific estimates of differential persistence are incrementally informative for forecasting and valuation.Tipo de ítem | Biblioteca actual | Colección | Signatura topográfica | Info Vol | Copia número | Estado | Fecha de vencimiento | Código de barras | |
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Revistas | Central Bogotá Sala Hemeroteca | Colección Hemeroteca | 657 (Navegar estantería(Abre debajo)) | 2016 V.91 No.3 (May) | 1 | Disponible | 0000002030249 |
Although the differential persistence of accruals and operating cash flows is a firm-specific phenomenon, research seeking to exploit the differential persistence of these earnings components typically employs cross-sectional forecasting models. We find that a model based on firm-specific estimates of the differential persistence of accruals and operating cash flows is incrementally useful for out-of-sample forecasting relative to state-of-the-art cross-sectional models. In doing so, we show that firm-specific estimates of differential persistence are particularly useful when forecasting earnings for more stable firms (e.g., more profitable, lower growth, and less levered firms). We also demonstrate that a trading strategy exploiting investors' fixation on earnings and based on firm-specific estimates of differential persistence earns statistically and economically significant excess returns that are incremental to those generated by trading strategies based on the size of accruals. These results suggest that firm-specific estimates of differential persistence are incrementally informative for forecasting and valuation.